2016 Surprise Team

Over the past few years a team has come out of nowhere to contend for a playoff/BCS National Championship game spot.  In 2013 it was Auburn, who was leading in the National Championship game with under 3 minutes to go after coming off a dreadful 3-9 season.  In 2014, TCU went 12-1, finished 3^rd in the polls, and destroyed Ole Miss in the Cotton.  This was after going 4-8 in 2013, and only beating Kansas and Iowa State in their first season in the Big 12.  Last year, Iowa coming off of a 7-6 campaign in which many were calling for longtime coach Kirk Ferentz’s head, were able finish the regular season undefeated, and was a fourth down stop in the Big 10 title game away from making it to the playoff. 

When looking at these teams, you will notice that they were all more talented that their record the year before.  There was no excuse for TCU or Auburn to not make a bowl game.  Iowa lost a lot of close games, and turned the ball over at a high rate.  Another important factor was the ability to win close games.  All of these teams held on and won multiple games by the skin of their teeth.  An easy schedule helps for these teams, but is not necessary as Auburn came out of the SEC West. Finally, these teams were able to find stability at the quarterback position.  Iowa and Auburn found transfers from inside their conference to start at QB.  TCU finally settled on Trevone Boykin, a former wide receiver as their starter.

These are teams to look out for in each conference:

ACC: UVA

Big 10: Minnesota

Big 12: Texas

SEC: Auburn

Pac12: Arizona State

And my pick is...

Pittsburgh- While Pitt has a tough schedule, as they get Clemson in a cross-over matchup and play Penn State and Oklahoma State in the non-conference, they are poised for a breakout year.  They have 2014 ACC POY James Connor back after he was diagnosed with cancer late last year, and return 16 starters.  Look for them to be similar to last year’s UNC squad, where a few bounces and close games could make the difference between a conference title appearance and an 8-4 record.