Tuesday, November 29, 2016

New Years Six Prjoections

Peach Bowl: #1 Alabama VS #4 Washington

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Clemson Vs. #3 Ohio State

Non-playoff games

Rose Bowl: Colorado (PAC 12) Vs. Wisconsin (Big 10 Champ)
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ) Vs. Florida (SEC)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC) Vs Michigan (2nd Highest Big 10, 2nd Highest SEC or Notre Dame)

Cotton Bowl: Western Michigan (Group of 5 Champ) Vs Penn State

Top 25 Polls


AP Poll
3 Yards Poll
1
Alabama (61)
Alabama
2
Ohio State
Ohio State
3
Clemson
Clemson
4
Washington
Michigan
5
Michigan
Washington
6
Wisconsin
Penn State
7
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
8
Penn State
Colorado
9
Colorado
Wisconsin
10
USC
Oklahoma
11
Oklahoma State
Florida State
12
Florida State
USC
13
Western Michigan
West Virginia
14
West Virginia
Western Michigan
15
Florida
Stanford
16
Louisville
Navy
17
Stanford
Florida
18
Auburn
Virginia Tech
19
Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh
20
Navy
Louisville
21
LSU
Iowa
22
Iowa
Auburn
23
Nebraska
LSU
24
Pittsburgh
Utah
25
South Florida
South Florida


AP Poll Breakdown:

ACC: 5
Big 10: 6
Big 12: 3
Pac 12: 4
SEC: 4
Group of 5: 3

Most Overrated: Louisville, Wisconsin

Most Underrated: Pittsburgh, Navy

Monday, November 28, 2016

Boston College Wake Forest Recap

The Boston College Eagles finished the regular season on Saturday with a 17-14 win over Wake Forest.  The Eagles did not play on well on offense, but used a great defense, and forced 3 turnovers to overcome this.  BC finishes at 6-6 and will be playing in a bowl game for the third time in 4 seasons.

When BC had the ball:  BC could get nothing going on offense all game, save for 2 drives in the fourth quarter.  The offense was given 2 golden opportunities in the first quarter and were able to get 10 points out of them.  This was huge considering how poorly they played for the rest of the game.  Patrick Towles had a rough first half, but came up big in the fourth quarter when the Eagles needed a touchdown.  He finished 10-23 for just 74 yards.  When Towles is used correctly, he is a decent quarterback.  He throws a good ball on slants and quick passes over the middle.  Where he struggles is reading a defense, and decision making on long drop backs.  Towles also did a good job of deciding to take off when nothing was open and gaining yards with his feet.  He hit both Tommy Sweeney and Jeff Smith 4 times each, the only 2 receivers to have more than 1 catch.  Sweeney does an excellent job of getting open particularly on the quick posts that Towles is effective at.  His touchdown catch come off of this.  Smith had a tough day with drops, but it was good to see BC try to throw it deep to him a few times.  Michael Walker had a great run after catch on a screen pass, which BC should be running more.  On the ground, BC had a terrible day.  They ran for 93 yards on 39 carries, just 2.4 yards per carry.  No running back played particularly well, as the Eagles struggled to block up front.  However, BC did have a few decent runs outside, yet didn’t use this often. 

When Wake Forest had the Ball: The BC defense did an excellent job holding Wake Forest to less than 300 yards of offense, and forced 3 turnovers.  Those turnovers lead to 10 points, with the final one sealing the game.  BC completely stuffed the traditional run game of Wake, and forced to Demon Deacons to throw more than they wanted to.  Wolford was 16 for 33 with 137 yards, just 4.2 yards per attempt.  Wolford was able to get some yardage on the ground, but most of those came on 2 long runs.  BC’s defensive line was excellent, both against the run and the pass.  The Eagles finished with 4 sacks, and 2 hurries, with Harold Landry accounting for 3 of the sacks.  BC’s defense had 8 tackles for loss.  Zack Allen seemed to be involved everytime Wake tried to run, and did a great job of getting push.  The linebackers played well, in particular Connor Strachan, who led the team with 10 total tackles.  The linebackers did get out of position a few times on Wolford scrambles, but were only burned twice.  The BC secondary also had a good game with 2 interceptions and 6 passes knocked down.  They did an excellent job when the ball was in the air, and played physical without getting called for pass interference.  This was arguably the best game the defense had played all year, and felt like a throwback to last season the way they got to the quarterback. 


Overall:  The Eagles are going bowling this season, and have improved from a 3-9 season from a year ago.  While many will not be happy about it Daz will be coming back next season, and has made it to a bowl in 3 of his 4 seasons as head coach.  While the BC offense did not play well on Saturday, the defense played excellent, and was opportunistic.  BC probably got outplayed overall, but still managed to pick up the win.

Friday, November 25, 2016

Boston College Wake Forest Preview

Boston College plays their final game of the regular season on Saturday when they take on Wake Forest in Winston Salem.  The Eagles need a victory to become bowl eligible and to avoid their second straight losing season.  The Demon Deacons come in with a 6-5 record and are 3.5 point favorites.

What to Watch When BC has the Ball:  The Boston College offense struggled again in the first quarter last weekend.  However, they started to move the ball when they used Patrick Towles more aggressively.  Towles responded with his best game of the season.  Look for BC to try to do this again.  They will most likely throw more in the first quarter and on first down they have previously this season.  BC has scored just 20 points in the first quarter all season, and will need to come out aggressively, they can’t afford to sit back and wait to slowly get things going.  The Eagles did a good job last weekend getting Jeff Smith the ball in different ways, and look for this to continue again.  BC should be able to run the ball against an average Wake Forest defensive front, and the offensive will be able to give Towles all the time he needs.   It will be interesting to see who gets the carries for BC on offense.  Jon Hiliman struggled last weekend, and due to this Davon Jones received his most carries since mid-October.   Jones has been more efficient than Hilliman this season, and deserves the carries he is getting.

What to Watch When Wake Forest has the ball: Wake Forest is lead by dual threat Quaterback John Wolford, brother of BC fullback Bobby Wolford.  Wolford did not play last weekend with an injury and it will be interesting to see if he plays and if he is effective by it.  Wolford is a dual threat QB who often leads Wake Forest in rushing, While Wolford is an efficient passer, he does not throw it deep, and does not create the big play.  This is key for the Eagles, as they have struggled stopping the big play through the air this season.  The offensive line for Wake Forest is not particularly good at pass blocking, and BC defensive line should be living in the backfield.  Look for Harold Landry to have a big game. 

Overall: Wake Forest is a similar team to BC talent wise.  The Eagles are 1-2 so far this season against ACC teams were not ranked.  BC’s defense has done a great job against these teams, but the offense has struggled. The first quarter will be key for BC to get things going, and to not fall behind.


Prediction: Boston College 24, Wake Forest 13

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Predictions and Best Bets for Week 13

Last Week:  9-3
Season: 114-49


Thursday

LSU @ Texas A&M- 7:30 ESPN

Friday

NC State @ North Carolina

Mitch Tribusky throws all over the Wolfpack as UNC improves to 9-3

#20 Houston @ Memphis

Greg Ward Jr. and the defensive line of Houston lead them to a rout of the Tigers.

#5 Washington @ #23 Washington State (Apple Cup)

Washington State pulls off the upset in the Apple Cup as Jake Browning struggles and throws multiple interceptions.

TCU @ Texas- 3:30 FS1

Texas sends Charlie Strong off with a win as the roll over TCU

#16 Nebraska @ Iowa (Heroes Game)

Iowa ends Nebraska’s Big 10 title hopes as the Hawkeyes shut down Nebraska’s offense.
#19 Boise State @ Air Force

The Broncos run out for a big early lead and hold on late to finish the season 11-1.

Toledo @ #21 Western Michigan

Toledo upsets Western Michigan, ruining the Broncos perfect season.

Baylor VS Texas Tech (At Arlington) (BUTT Game)

Patrick Mahommes puts up big numbers through the air as Baylor continues its losing streak.


Saturday

#3 Michigan @ #2 Ohio State (The Game)

JT Barrett is able to get enough offense for Ohio State, while they slow down Michigan’s rushing attack.

Kentucky @ #11 Louisville (Governor’s Cup)

Lamar Jackson locks up the Heisman as Louisville blows out Kentucky.

Georgia Tech @ Georgia (Clean, Old-Fashion Hate)

Justin Thomas uses both his feet and his arm to beat Georgia for the second time in 3 years.

#13 Auburn @ #1 Alabama (Iron Bowl)

Alabama’s defense is too strong and Jalen Hurst makes big plays with his feet for the Crimson Tide.

Notre Dame @ #12 USC (Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh)

Sam Darnold has a big game throwing the ball as the Irish lose their 8th game this season.

Michigan State @ #7 Penn State (Land-Grant Trophy)

Michigan State upsets Penn State opening the door for Ohio State to play in the Big 10 title game.

South Carolina @ #4 Clemson (Battle for the Palmetto State)

Deshaun Watson and Clemson blow out the Gamecocks

#22 Utah @ #9 Colorado (Rumble in the Rockies)

Colorado uses their defense to beat Utah and head to the PAC 12 title game. 

#15 Florida @ #14 Florida State

Dalvin Cook is able to get Florida State’s offense moving on the ground, while Deondre Francois hits some big plays through the air.

Wyoming @ New Mexico

Wyoming advances to the Mountain West championship game as they take down New Mexico.



Best Bets

Last Week: 5-0
Season: 30-25-3 (Locks of the Week: 4-7-1)

TCU @ Texas- Texas-3
Baylor Vs Texas Tech- Over 84
Oregon @ Oregon State- Oregon- 3
Michigan State @ Penn State- MSU+12.5
Notre Dame @ USC- ND +17.5                 
West Virginia @ Iowa State- WVU -7 (Lock of the W

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

What to Watch in Week 13

Thursday Night

LSU @ Texas A&M- 7:30 ESPN

LSU and Texas A&M met on Thanksgiving night for the third year in a row as both teams try to turn around poor Novembers as 4 of the teams 7 losses have taken place this month.  Both teams have struggled on offense recently, particularly at the quarterback position.  A&M is without starter Trevor Knight, and must rely on backup Jake Hubenack.  The key will be if LSU can run the ball against a very strong Texas A&M defensive line.

Friday Day

NC State @ North Carolina- 12:00 ESPN
#20 Houston @ Memphis- 12:00 ABC

NC State takes on rival UNC in Chapel Hill at noon on black Friday.  NC State has won just 1 of its last 6 while UNC can still win the ACC Coastal.  UNC is lead by quarterback Mitch Trubisky, one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country.  NC State’s defense excels in the red zone, and will need to stand strong if they want to upset UNC.  In the AAC, Houston looks to improve on its big win over Louisville last week.  Memphis will need to contain the pass rush of Houston if they have a chance in this one.

Friday Afternoon

#5 Washington @ #23 Washington State (Apple Cup)- 3:30 FOX
TCU @ Texas- 3:30 FS1
#16 Nebraska @ Iowa (Heroes Game)- 3:30 ABC
#19 Boise State @ Air Force- 3:30 CBS Sports Network

In the biggest Apple Cup of all time, the PAC 12 North division is on the line.  Washington has struggled on the offensive side of the ball against the two ranked teams they have played so far this season and Jake Browning needs to step up his game in this one.  Washington has lost 2 key starters on defense to injury, so look for QB Luke Falk to have more time for the Cougars.  Washington State likes to throw the ball 50+ times a game, but it is when their running game gets going that they are tough to beat.  In Texas, TCU takes on the longhorns in what will probably be Charlie Strong’s last game.  Look for D’onta Foreman to have a huge game for Texas against a bad TUC defense.  Kenny Hill has had a decent season for TCU, and should be able to throw all over Texas.  In the Big 10, Nebraska still has a shot at a conference title, and needs a win over Iowa to keep their hopes alive.  Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury, so if he plays look for him to not run as much.  Iowa is led by a great defense, and needs to keep this a low scoring game if they want to win.  Out west, Boise State heads to Colorado Springs to take on Air Force.  Boise State can still make the Fiesta Bowl with a win, and has down a great job getting up early this season.  Air Force must weather the early storm, and get its ground game going.

Friday Night

Toledo @ #21 Western Michigan- 5:00 ESPN2
Baylor VS Texas Tech (At Arlington) (BUTT Game)- 6:00 ESPN
Arizona State @ Arizona (Territorial Cup)- 9:30 ESPN

Western Michigan takes on Toledo in which the winner makes it to the MAC championship game.  Although Western is undefeated, Toledo will be the best team they have played all year.  Toldeo is lead by a very strong offense, and almost knocked off BYU in Provo this season.  In a neutral site game, Baylor takes on Texas Tech.  Look for both teams scoring a high number of points in this one, as neither team plays good defense.  Baylor’s season has started to come off the rails in the recent month, but are the more talented team.  Patrick Mahommes has been able to throw on everyone, and will be able to against Baylor.  In the nightcap, the two PAC 12 Arizona schools play for the Territorial Cup. Both teams are suffering from long losing streaks, but a win in this one will end the season in a positive note. 

Saturday Day

#3 Michigan @ #2 Ohio State (The Game)- 12:00 ABC
Kentucky @ #11 Louisville (Governor’s Cup)- 12:00 ESPN
Georgia Tech @ Georgia (Clean, Old-Fashion Hate)- 12:00 SEC Network

Michigan takes on Ohio State in the biggest game of the weekend.  Both of these teams have struggled on offense recently, and Michigan has lost starting quarterback for the season.  Ohio State is lead by JT Barrett, a former Big 10 player of the year, who has not been as explosive this season.  Michigan’s rushing attack has struggled against good defenses this season, and if Ohio State can stop it, they should be able to pull off the victory.  In the Governor’s Cup, Kentucky heads to Louisville.  The Cardinals lost last weekend, knocking them out of the playoff race, so it will be interesting to see the moral of the team in this one.  Lamar Jackson will be the best player on the field, but got no help from his receivers or his offensive line last week.  If Louisville comes out playing the way they are capable of, this one should be a blowout.  Down in Georgia, the state’s biggest football programs play on the SEC Network.  Look for both teams try to establish the run as Georgia Tech runs the triple option, while the bulldogs are led by Nick Chubb.  The yellow jackets have not been as explosive on offense as in the past this season, and are up against an excellent bulldog defense.  If Tech cannot get the big plays, they will struggle to put up points. 

Saturday Afternoon

#13 Auburn @ #1 Alabama (Iron Bowl)- 3:30 CBS
Notre Dame @ #12 USC (Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh)- 3:30 ABC
Michigan State @ #7 Penn State (Land-Grant Trophy)- 3:30 ESPN

Alabama heads to the Iron Bowl as the number one ranked team for the 4th consecutive year.  He Crimson Tide are heavy favorites over the Auburn Tigers.  Auburn will need to get its running game established, and avoid big mistakes on offense in order to have a chance in this one.  In Los Angeles, Notre Dame and USC play for the Jeweled Shillelagh trophy.  Notre Dame has had a rough season, with a record of 4-7, but all 7 losses have been by 8 points or less.  Sam Darnold has lead USC to a 7 game winning streak, and is one of the most efficient passers in the country.  If he can get going, it could be a long day for Notre Dame.  In the Big 10, Michigan State heads to Penn State, as the Nittany Lions try to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Michigan State has had a horrendous season, but has played well against the better teams on their schedule.  If Chase McSworly can get going, look for Penn State to win in a rout.  However, he has be inconsistent this year, leaving hope for the Spartans. 

Saturday Night

South Carolina @ #4 Clemson (Battle for the Palmetto State)- 7:30 ESPN
#22 Utah @ #9 Colorado (Rumble in the Rockies)- 7:30 FOX
#15 Florida @ #14 Florida State- 8:00 ABC

South Carolina tries to end Clemson’s playoff hope with a win in their rivalry matchup.  South Carolina has been a much improved team so far this season, but their offensive line should struggle with Carlos Wilkins, and Christian Walkins.  In the Rockies, Colorado tries to clinch a spot in the PAC 12 Championship game with a win over Utah.  Colorado has been lead by its excellent defense, while Utah has used Joe Williams running ability to win games.  Utah’s offense cannot get going with Williams, and look for Colorado to be keying on him.  In Florida, the Gators and Seminoles clash in what is always an intense rivalry matchup.  Florida picked up a huge win over LSU last weekend, and still has an outside shot at the playoff.  Florida is led by its rush defense, while FSU is led by runningback Dalvin Cook.  Whoever can win that battle, will win this game.

Saturday Late Night

Wyoming @ New Mexico- 10:15 ESPN2

Wyoming heads to New Mexico with a chance to win the Mountain West Mountain division.  Wyoming picked up a huge upset win over San Diego State last weekend, and end Boise State’s Fiesta Bowl hopes with a win.


Conference Championship Scenarios

As the season enters the final week of regular season play many conference and division championships are still up for grabs.  A breakdown for each conference is provided below.

Power 5 Scenarios

ACC Atlantic: Clemson has already won the division
ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech wins with a win OR a North Carolina loss
North Carolina wins with a win AND a Virginia Tech loss

Big 10 East: Michigan wins with a win
Penn State wins with a win AND a Michigan loss
Ohio States wins with a win AND a Penn State Loss
Big 10 West: Wisconsin wins with a win OR a Nebraska loss
Nebraska wins with a win AND a Wisconsin loss

Big 12: The winner of the Bedlam Game, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma on December 3rd wins the conference

Pac 12 North: The winner of the Apple Cup, Washington @ Washington State on November 25 wins the division
Pac 12 South: Colorado win with a win
USC wins with a Colorado loss

SEC East: Florida has won the division
SEC West: Alabama has won the division

Group of 5

AAC East: Temple wins with a win OR a USF loss
USF wins with a win AND a Temple loss
AAC West: Navy has won the division

Conference USA East: Western Kentucky wins with a win OR an Old Dominion Loss
Old Dominion wins with a win AND an Western Kentucky loss
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech has won the division

MAC East: Ohio wins with a win OR a Miami (Ohio) loss
Miami (Ohio) wins with a win And an Ohio loss
MAC West: Winner of Western Michigan Toledo on November 25 wins the division

Mountain West Mountain: Wyoming wins with a win
Boise State wins with a win AND a Wyoming loss
New Mexico wins with a win AND a Boise State loss
Mountain West West: San Diego State has won the division

Sun Belt: Arkansas State wins by winning both remaining games OR an Appalachian State loss AND a win
Appalachian State forces a shared championship with a win AND an Arkansas State loss
Appalachian State wins outright championship with a win AND Arkansas State losses both remaining games AND a Troy loss
Troy wins by winning both remaining games AND Arkansas State losses both remaining games

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Top 25 Rankings


AP Poll
3 Yards Poll
1
Alabama (61)
Alabama
2
Ohio State
Ohio State
3
Michigan
Michigan
4
Clemson
Clemson
5
Wisconsin
Washington
6
Washington
Penn State
7
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
8
Penn State
Colorado
9
Colorado
Oklahoma State
10
Oklahoma State
USC
11
Louisville
Oklahoma
12
USC
Florida
13
Florida
Florida State
14
Western Michigan
Houston
15
Florida State
Louisville
16
Auburn
Western Michigan
17
Nebraska
West Virginia
18
Houston
Auburn
19
West Virginia
Utah
20
Boise State
Nebraska
21
Utah
Boise State
22
Texas A&M
Washington State
23
Washington State
Texas A&M
24
Tennessee
Virginia Tech
25
LSU
North Carolina

AP Poll Breakdown

ACC: 3
Big10: 5
Big 12: 3
Pac 12: 5
SEC: 6
Group of Five: 3

Most Overrated: Oklahoma

Most Underrated: Houston