Boston College Florida State Preview

Boston College heads to Tallahassee to take on Florida State in the Seminoles first Friday home game in over 50 years.  BC got blown out by Louisville last week and their record now stands at 4-5.  Florida State, which comes in as the 18^th ranked team in the country, had a comeback win over NC State last week, and improved to 6-3.  Currently Florida State is favored by 21 points.

What to Watch when BC has the Ball:  BC’s offensive line got dominated against Louisville last weekend.  They will need to play better this weekend if BC has any hope of moving the ball.  Florida State’s front seven is very fast, and likes to get into the backfield.  However, they will be without Brian Burns for the first half, an athletic defensive end the Noles like to use on obvious passing downs.  If the offensive line give Towles time, he will be able to make plays down the field.  The FSU secondary is not their strong point, especially following the loss of All-America safety Derwin James.  James was Florida State’s best player, and they have struggled in the games where he does not play.  Look for BC to try to attack Florida State through the air by using slants and other quick passes to Jeff Smith and Michael Walker.  Florida State has given up big catch and runs, and BC needs to use the playmaking ability of those 2 after the catch.  On the ground, look for Eagles to go back to using Jon Hilliman as the featured back.  For a while, Davon Jones was stealing carries, but after a fumble against NC State, he has pretty much been benched.  Hilliman showed big play ability in the first two games of the season against Georgia Tech and Umass, breaking off touchdown runs of 78 and 26 yards.  This has been diminished in recent weeks.  He needs to have a few more of these runs to be effective, as he gets stopped behind the line much too often.  One way to help Hilliman break off the big play is by being more aggressive in the passing game, which will take FSU defenders off of the line.  If BC comes out conservative, they will struggle against a fast Seminoles defense.

What to Watch when Florida State has the Ball: FSU is lead by arguably the best runningback in the country in Dalvin Cook.  Over the course of his career, Cook has averaged 6.44 yards per attempt.  He runs with the aggressiveness of a power back, always falling forward, while he posses the speed to score every time he touches the ball.  The Seminoles don’t try to over work him, as he has yet to have more than 30 carries in a single game this season, and has fewer than 20 carries in 4 games.  However, they try to get him the ball in multiple ways.  Against Ole Miss, Cook was mostly bottled up, so he was used more as a pass catcher and ended up with over 100 yards receiving.  BC won’t be able to shut him down, but will need to contain him in order to win this one. FSU also posses’ a dual threat quarterback in Deondre Francois.  Francois has great poise for a true freshman, and uses his feet effectively, but can be prone to mistakes.  The area where the Seminoles struggle is on the offensive line, and in particular their pass blocking.  BC must take advantage of this.  Harold Landry should have a field day, and he should be living in the backfield.  Elsewhere, the focus of the BC defense should be not giving up the long touchdown.  BC has already given up 15 touchdowns of 20 yards or longer, that almost 2 per game.  If they can stop that, they will be successful in this game.

Overall:  The first quarter will be key in this game.  If BC falls behind early, like they have against the other ranked teams they have played this season, this one will be a route.  However, if they keep it close, FSU is not a bad matchup for BC. The Eagles are strong against the run, which is what FSU wants to do on offense, and if FSU gets in passing downs, the BC defensive line should produce sacks. On offense, BC should have success in the short passing game, which may help to open up the run game.  However, BC is likely to give up too many big plays while producing few of their own, and they have yet to come out strong in a single game this season. 

Prediction: Florida State 34, Boston College 17