Thursday, August 31, 2017

Boston College Vs Northern Illinois Preview

Boston College opens their 2017 season with a visit to DeKalb, Illinois to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies.  The last time these two played was in September 2015, with the Eagles winning 17-14.  Both teams had disspointing seasons last year.  BC struggled against quality teams, and finished 7-6.  Northern Illinois finished 5-7, but had 4 separate injuries to quarterbacks, and improved as the year went on, wining 4 out of their last 5.  Most places have Northern Illinois much improved this year and as a contender for the MAC West title.  Currently the line sits at BC -2.5. 

What to Watch When BC has the Ball: This will be the first glimpse at the Eagle offense, and who the starting QB will be.  Look for Wade to start, but for Brown to also receive first half snaps.  If BC does indeed rotate quarterbacks, even more pressure will be put on the offensive line to get the running game going.  They have struggled the past 2 years, and the offense has struggled with them.  In the run game, look for Jon Hilliman to continue to get the bulk of the carries for the Eagles.  He has been their featured back (when healthy)the past 2 seasons.  Freshman A.J. Dillion appears fully recovered from a knee injury last year, and should also receive carries.  Davon Jones was the second leading rusher from last season, but has had a quiet camp.  It will be interesting to see how they use him, and if he will get any carries.  The good news for the backs is that BC should be able to run the ball as NIU is replacing 4 of the top 6 defensive lineman and 3 out of the 5 linebackers that played for them.  Last season NIU was ranked 60th in run defense in the S&P rankings and should be worse this season.  The one area where NIU was very strong was it did not give up many 10+ yard runs.  BC will need to grind out 5-7 yard carries against this defense.  The strength of NIU will be its secondary.  Their secondary improved as the year went on, and they return all 4 starters.  BC cannot afford to fall into 3rd or it could be a long day. 

What to Watch When NIU has the Ball: There is a reason why NIU had 4 quarterback injuries last season, their offensive line is a weakness.  While they have potential all-conference lineman in tackle Max Scharping and Center Luke Shively.  Look for Scharping to line up across from Landry on most plays. The BC defensive line should have a great day rushing the passer, particularly Zach Allen.  He had a great camp, and should be facing a weaker tackle.  NIU mostly uses a short, quick passing game in order to help with the pressure.  However, they don’t have much speed on the outside, and BC’s corners should be able to stop these for short gains.  In the backfield, NIU, just like BC, has yet to name a starting quarterback. The competition is between Ryan Graham and Daniel Santacaterina, both of whom starter multiple games last season.  Who is starting at QB should not effect BC’s gameplan as both are similar players with similar talent.  Joining whoever starts at QB in the backfield will be Jordan Huff.  Huff is a big play back who has been mostly used as a change of pace the last 2 seasons.  However, this year he will be their featured back. BC must avoid giving up the big play on the ground to Huff.  If they can do that, the defense should be fine. 

Overall: While BC returns a lot from last season, there are still some major question marks with this team.  The biggest 2 coming on offense, with the QB position and the offensive line.  While NIU isn’t a top tier team, they have enough to provide a decent answer for these questions.  Look for BC to come out early and trying to establish the run.  BC needs to put itself in a position where it is not forced to throw the ball.  Look for the Eagles to throw mostly short passes early to try to get the QB’s confidence high.  Look for the playbook to open up more in the second half. NIU’s defensive weakness is up the middle, and BC should be able to exploit this.  On defense, as long as BC does not give up long runs, they should have a great game.  The defensive line should be able to get after the quarterback, and NIU won’t look to through the ball downfield.   

I expect this game to be ugly in the first quarter, but BC will start to establish itself in the second half. Under Daz, BC has struggled in openers, particularly on offense.  In 2013, they trailed Villanova at the half.  The next season, BC lead only 6-0 at half before blowing out UMass.  In 2015, Maine hung around as BC was only up 10-3 at half, and last season BC only scored 14 points in a lost to Georgia Tech where they were shut out in the 1st half.  However, just like the openers in Daz’s first 3 seasons, the Eagles are clearly the more talented team, and it will show more and more as the game goes on. 

Prediction: 27-10 Boston College 

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Week 1 Predictions and Best Bets

Thursday 
Tulsa @ #10 Oklahoma State 
#2 Ohio State @ Indiana 

Friday 
#8 Washington @ Rutgers 
Colorado State Vs Colorado 

Saturday 
Maryland @ #23 Texas 
Wyoming @ Iowa 
California @ North Carolina 
NC State Vs South Carolina 
#11 Michigan Vs #17 Florida 
Temple @ Notre Dame 
Appalachian State @ #15 Georgia 
#17 Louisville Vs Purdue 
#3 Florida State Vs #1 Alabama 
BYU Vs #13 LSU 
Montana State @ #24 Washington State 

Sunday 
#22 West Virginia Vs #21 Virginia Tech 
Texas A&M @ UCLA 

Monday 
#25 Tennessee Vs Georgia Tech 

Best Bets 

Tusla @ Oklahoma State (-17.5) Lock of the Week 
Boston College (-2.5) @ Northern Illinois 
Boston College @ Northern Illinois- Under 52 
Maryland (+18.5) @ Texas 
Florida State (+7.5) Vs Alabama 

Monday, August 28, 2017

What to Watch in Week 1

Thursday Night 
Tulsa @ #10 Oklahoma State- 7:30 FS1 
#2 Ohio State @ Indiana- 8:00 ESPN 

The full slate of college football kicks off on Thursday in Stillwater as Oklahoma State hosts Tulsa.  Ok State comes in with arguably its highest expectations event, entering the season in the top 10.  Mason Rudolph returns to lead the cowboys, who should have no trouble with Tulsa.  However, Oklahoma State lost to Central Michigan last year, and can’t afford to take the Golden Hurricanes lightly.  Elsewhere, College Gameday heads to Bloomington for the first time as Ohio State visits Indiana.  Ohio State enters the game as the #2 team in the country lead by JT Barrett, while it is Indiana head coach Tom Allen’s first regular season game.  Indiana has a history of nearly upsetting top teams, but are heavy underdogs in this one. 

Friday Night 
#8 Washington @ Rutgers- 8:00 FS1 
Colorado State Vs Colorado- (Denver)- Rocky Mountain Showdown- 8:00 PAC12 
Boston College @ Northern Illinois: 9:30 CBSSN 

Washington faces its toughest non-conference opponent when it plays at Rutgers on Friday night. After making the playoff last year, Washington looks to be another contender while Rutgers tries to improve from a dredful season.  In Denver, the 89th Rocky Mountain showdown pits Colorado State against Colorado.  CSU won easily last weekend over Oregon State, and looks to beat is second PAC12 opponent in a row.  Colorado had its most successful season in over a decade last year, and will be trying to prove that season was not a fluke.  In a late night game, BC heads to Northern Illinois. (Preview coming later this week.) 

Saturday Day 
Maryland @ #23 Texas- FS1 12:00 
Wyoming @ Iowa- 12:00 BTN 
California @ North Carolina- 12:20 ACCN 

The Saturday games kick off with a trip by Maryland to Austin to take on Texas in Tom Herman’s first game. Maryland finished .500 last season and presents a formidable opponent for Texas to prove if they deserve the pre-season hype.  Elsewhere in Iowa City, projected first round pick Josh Allen and Wyoming look to upset Iowa.  Wyoming played awful away from home last season but can beat anyone if Allen has a good game.  Iowa looks to avoid being upset at home and get back to where they were in 2015.  In Chapel Hill, Cal has to come across the country to play a game that starts at 9:20 am in Berkley.  Cal always brings a high powered offense, but has no defense to back it up.  UNC looks to take advantage, but has a question mark at QB after losing first round pick Mitch Trubisky.   

Saturday Afternoon 
NC State Vs South Carolina- (Charlotte)- Belk Kickoff Game- 3:00 ESPN 
#11 Michigan Vs #17 Florida- (Dallas)- Advocare Classic - 3:30 ABC 
Temple @ Notre Dame- 3:30 NBC 

In Charlotte, South Carolina and NC State face off for the first time since 2009 in the Belk Kickoff Classic. NC State comes into the season with high expectations, and Jaylon Samuels is a playmaker who the Wolfpack will rely on.  South Carolina improved as 2016 went on, and looks to continue this improvement in Will Muschamp’s second year at head coach.  In Dallas, Florida plays a non-conference game outside the state of Florida for the first time since 1991.  The Gators have won the SEC East the past 2 seasons, but have struggled on offense in both seasons.  They have a question mark at QB, and head coach Jim McElwain has stated that they may play 3 different players at that position on Saturday.  Michigan lost a lot of talent to graduation and the NFL draft, but is replacing those players with top recruits.  Also at 3:30 Temple heads to South Bend to play Notre Dame.  Notre Dame looks to rebound after a 4-8 season last year. Redshirt freshman Brandon Wimbush will lead the Irish, who face a tough defense in Temple 

Saturday Night 
Appalachian State @ #15 Georgia- 6:15 ESPN 
Louisville Vs Purdue- (Indianapolis)-7:30 FOX 
#3 Florida State Vs #1 Alabama- (Atlanta)- Chick-Fil-A Kickoff- 8:00 ABC 

Georgia hosts App State in a potential upset game at 6:15.  The Mountaineers won 10 games last season and nearly knocked off Tennessee in their opener.  Georgia brings back Jacob Eason at QB who looks to improve in his second year as a starter.  At 7:30 in Indianapolis, Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson gets his season under way. Louisville started strong but injuries and a bad offensive line lead to 3 straight losses to end the season.  They look to get back on track against a Purdue team that does not have high expectations.  In the ABC Saturday Night Game, #1 Alabama faces off against #3 Florida State in what could be the game of the year.  Both teams are playoff contenders with Quarterbacks returning.  The winner of this one will have a fast track to the playoffs and will be able to afford to lose a game later in the season.   

Saturday Late Night 
BYU Vs #13 LSU- (Houston)- Texas Kickoff- 9:30 ESPN 
Montana State @ #24 Washington State- 10:30 FS1 

LSU and BYU are looking to move their game from Houston due to the flooding of Hurricane Harvey.  At the time of writing, the game has yet to be moved, but the LSU AD guaranteed the game will be played.  BYU struggled in its opener against Portland State last week, and will need to improve quickly if they want to be competitive against LSU.  This is LSU head coach Ed Ogeron’s first game since being name permanent head coach.  He wants to start hot to prove he was the right man for the job.  In the nightcap, Montana State takes on Washington State.  The Cougars have lost to an FCS team each of the past 2 seasons, and want to avoid that fate again on Saturday.   

Sunday Night 
#22 West Virginia Vs #21 Virginia Tech- (Washington D.C.)- Black Diamond Trophy- 7:30 ABC 
Texas A&M @ UCLA- 7:30 Fox 

The Black Diamond trophy is contested for the first time in over 10 years as West Virginia and Virginia 
Tech face off in Washington D.C. Each team comes into the game with its highest expectations in years, as both are ranked.  West Virginia lost a lot of talent on defense last season, but Virginia Tech has to replace quarterback Jarrod Evans. Elsewhere, Texas A&M travels to the Rose Bowl to take on Josh Rosen and UCLA.  UCLA struggled to protect Rosen last year and Rosen will need to limit his turnovers in order to give UCLA a chance.  A&M will be starting a new QB for the 4th year in a row, as Trevor Knight graduated.  Look for UCLA to try to pressure early to take advantage. 

Monday Night 
#25 Tennessee Vs Georgia Tech- (Atlanta)-Chick-Fil-A Kickoff- 8:00 ESPN 

In the last game of the weekend, Tennessee faces hometown Georgia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A kickoff.  While Tennessee did not live up to its incredible hype last season, they still produced a solid team.  They should be good again this year and contend for the SEC East title.  Georgia Tech loses its QB and its top running back from last season.  However, the triple option of the Yellow Jackets is tough to stop, and could cause Tennessee fits. 

Saturday, August 26, 2017

SEC Prediction


East    
Florida 9-3 7-2
Tennesee 9-3 7-2
Georgia 9-3 6-3
Kentucky 5-7 2-6
South Carolina 4-8 2-6
Missouri 5-7 1-7
Vanderbilt 4-8 1-7

West    
Auburn 10-2 7-1
Alabama 10-2 7-1
Mississippi State 8-4 5-3
Texas A&M 8-4 4-4
LSU 8-4 4-4
Arkansas 8-4 4-4
Ole Miss 6-6 2-6
Championship: Florida over Auburn

Pac 12 Prediction


North    
Washington 11-1 8-1
Stanford 9-3 7-2
Washington State 8-4 5-4
Oregon 7-5 5-4
California 3-9 2-7
Oregon State 2-10 3-9

South    
USC 12-0 9-0
Colorado 8-4 5-4
UCLA 7-5 4-5
Utah 7-5 4-5
Arizona 6-6 3-6
Arizona State 4-8 1-8
Championship: Washington over USC

Big 12 Prediction


Oklahoma 11-1 9-0
Oklahoma State 10-2 7-2
West Virginia 8-4 6-3
TCU 8-4 6-3
Kansas State 8-4 5-4
Texas 7-5 5-4
Baylor 6-6 4-5
Texas Tech 3-9 2-7
Iowa State 3-9 1-8
Kansas 2-10 0-9

Championship: Oklahoma over Oklahoma State

Big 10 Prediction


East    
Ohio State 12-0 9-0
Michigan 9-3 7-2
Penn State 9-3 6-3
Michigan State 8-4 6-3
Maryland 5-7 3-6
Indiana 5-7 2-7
Rutgers 3-9 1-8

West    
Wisconsin 11-1 8-1
Iowa 9-3 7-2
Nebraska 8-4 6-3
Minnesota 6-6 3-6
Northwestern 5-7 3-6
Purdue 2-10 2-7
Illinois 2-10 1-8


Championship: Ohio State over Wisconsin

Friday, August 25, 2017

BC Season Prediction

While BC has finished 7-6 three out of the 4 season under Daz, each has felt very different.  Year 1 featured Andre Williams carrying the team to 7 wins, and just getting to a bowl was a success after Spaz.  In year 2, BC upset USC and nearly beat Clemson and FSU as well.  This team was very talented and could have, or should have won at least 9 games.  Last year, the Eagles rode an easy schedule and a bowl game to 7 wins while getting blown out by the good teams they faced.  This year looks to be a mix of good and bad, as BC faces a tougher schedule but does not need to beat any ranked teams in order to get to the 7 wins barrier.  As stated in the other previews, this team has plenty of talent, but huge question marks.  With those mixing, there will probably be a game that BC loses in which they should win easily and one where they win in which they should have lost by double digits.  I predict that BC will once again win 7 games, but be much closer 

Northern Illinois: WIN 
Patrick Brown gets the start and plays decent enough for the Eagles to come out with a week 1 win.  The game is close in the first half, however, BC has too much speed and talent in the second, and the Eagles win by double digits. 

Wake Forest: WIN 
In a game that brings back memories to the 3-0 loss in 2014, neither team can do much with the ball.  However, Wake is unable to block Harold Landry and the BC pressure causes turnovers.  The good field position gives BC enough offense to win comfortably. 

Notre Dame: LOSS 
BC will try to catch Notre Dame in a letdown spot after they played Georgia the week before.  Just like BC, Notre Dame has to break in a new quarterback.  However, that QB is surrounded by more talent on offense, and the Irish are able to eek out a close victory. 

Clemson: LOSS 
The week after playing an emotionally charged game against Notre Dame, BC comes out flat against the Tigers.  Once again big plays cost the Eagles early, as Clemson wins easily. 

Central Michigan: WIN 
BC has much more talent than CMU and it shows as BC wins easily.  With the win, BC sits at 3-2 on the season, and has won the games its needed to put itself in a position for a bowl. 

Virginia Tech: LOSS 
BC outplays Virginia Tech put struggles in the red zone as BC loses a frustrating game.  The Eagles drop to .500 

Louisville: LOSS 
In the first half, the Eagles defensive line is in Lamar Jackson’s face everytime he touches the ball.  However, the offensive struggles and the game stays close entering the fourth.  Late in the game, Jackson takes over and the Cardinals win by double digits.  The calls for Daz’s head come out again as the team is 3-4. 

Virginia: WIN 
UVA is the worst team in the ACC and it shows as BC easily defeats the Cavaliers. 

Florida State: LOSS 
BC comes out strong on a Friday Night against the Noles bt it isn’t enough as FSU pulls ahead and wins by 2 touchdowns.  With the loss, BC has lost to all ranked teams it will face this season. 

NC State: WIN 
BC picks up a much needed ACC win over the Wolfpack.  Daz has had NC State’s number and this continues as BC wins a game they statistically should have lost.  With the win, BC only needs to win 1 of the next 2 to make a bowl. 

UConn: WIN 
BC becomes bowl eligible by blowing out UConn at Fenway. 

Syracuse: WIN 
BC easily beats a Syracuse team that has nothing left to play for in the last game of the season. BC finishes the season at 7-5, winning their last 3 games.  The Eagles are selected to play in the Pinstripe bowl where they beat Michigan State. 

BC Best Case Scenario

If BC can put together some sort of offense to go with their outstanding defense, the Eagles could have a very successful year.  This is what will happen if everything breaks the right way. 

Northern Illinois: WIN 
BC comes out firing out of the gates, and uses some early big plays to put the game away before halftime.  It is easy to tell from the start who the more talented team is. 

Wake Forest: WIN 
Wake tries to make this one a slow, grind it out affair.  However, BC absolutely shuts down Wake’s rushing attack, and BC’s offense uses good field position to score enough to win. 

Notre Dame: WIN 
A week after Notre Dame beats Georgia, they lay an egg against BC. The Eagles come out strong out of the gates, rushing to an early double digit lead.  In the second half, BC holds on as Notre Dame comes back, but the defensive line gets enough pressure and sacks to pull out the upset. 

Clemson: LOSS 
BC comes into this game ranked for the first time in the Addazio era. Clemson enters in the top 5, and proves why they are the defending national champs.  The game is close for the first half, but the Tigers pull away in the second.  Even with the loss the season outlook is still extremely positive. 

Central Michigan: WIN 
The Eagles come out strong and easily beat CMU.  BC is only 2 wins away from bowl eligibility and the calendar hasn’t hit October yet. 

Virginia Tech: LOSS 
BC comes out flat against a ranked Tech squad.  The Eagles come back late, but it isn’t enough to win.  A little bit of doubt starts to creep in that Notre Dame was overrated, and BC is headed for another 7-6 season. 

Louisville: WIN 
BC comes down the Louisville and beat the Cardinals for the first time as an ACC opponent. Louisville is unable to block the BC defensive line and Lamar Jackson has no where to go.  With the win, BC re-enters the top 25 and those doubts from last week fade away. 

Virginia: WIN 
BC beats up on the worst team in the ACC and gets to bowl eligibility early.  With FSU next week, there is talk that BC could sneak into a new years 6 game. 

Florida State: LOSS 
Playing their biggest game since the 2008 ACC championship, the Eagles rush out of the gates to an early lead against the #1 team in the country.  However, FSU is able to block the defensive line, and the Deandre Francois picks apart the secondary as the Seminoles win easy. 

NC State: WIN 
NC State tries to use their ground game against BC, but can’t get anything going.  The BC offense struggles as well, but gets just enough big plays to avoid being upset. 

UConn: WIN 
BC proves it is the best team in New England as they easily defeat the huskies.  With the win, BC is looking at quality bowl game, with a longshot at a New Year’s day game. 

Syracuse: WIN 
BC goes into Syracuse and wins easily over the Orange.  Following the game, Addazio is named ACC coach of the year and gets a contract extension.  BC goes to the Belk Bowl where they lose to LSU and finished the season at 9-4, their most wins since 2008 

BC Worst Case Scenario

Worst Case 

While BC has some good talent this year, there are still key areas that have question marks.  Can BC develop a passing game? Will the secondary continue to give up big plays? Will the offensive line be able to get push on running plays? The below details what will happen if BC can’t provide good answers. 

Northern Illinois: LOSS 
BC comes out strong in the first half, but plays both QBs as the offense struggles.  The 9:30 EST start takes its toll in the 2nd as the defense gets worn down. 

Wake Forest: LOSS 
In another sloppy low scoring game against the Deacons, BC can’t put up any points on the board, while Wake uses a running QB to make just enough big plays.  With the loss the Eagles need to turn things around quickly or the season is over. 

Notre Dame: LOSS 
Playing Notre Dame at home for the first time in 5 years, the Eagles play inspired and put up their best 1st half of the season so far.  However, Notre Dame’s talent advantage shows in the 2nd half and the Eagles lose again. 

Clemson: LOSS 
Daz finally sticks with Brown at QB but it doesn’t make as Clemson blows out BC. 

Central Michigan: WIN 
BC is too talented for CMU and pulls out their first win of the season. Even with the win, bowl chances look unlikely, and Daz is firmly on the hot seat. 

Virginia Tech: LOSS 
BC comes out flat against the Hokies and gets blown out for the second year in a row. 

Louisville: LOSS 
Lamar Jackson puts up another show against the Eagles, and BC must win out to make a bowl. 

Virginia: WIN 
BC pulls out just their second win of the season in a battle to determine the worst team in the ACC.  Event with the win, things aren’t looking up. 

Florida State: LOSS 
The Noles are too fast and talented and win easy.  BC is officially elminiated from bowl contention, and Daz is pretty much done. 

NC State: LOSS 
BC plays uninspired and pretty much rolls over as they can no longer make a bowl.  The blow out in this one is the most embarrassing loss in the Daz era, as NC State is unranked. 

UConn: WIN 
In the 2nd game at Fenway in 3 years, BC pulls out a victory over UConn.  The huskies talk up beating BC all week, and the Eagles finally come out motivated for the first time since September. 

Syracuse: LOSS 
Similar to the game played in 2015 with neither team having anything to play for, the Eagles lose a close one in Syracuse.  Following the game, Jarmond fires Addazio.